Wednesday, June 18, 2008

McCain's dilemma

All things are uncertain when it comes to politics but I agree with Kevin Drum here that McCain really has no chance of pulling off a George Bush-style win in November:
Given all this, it's hard for me to see how he wins Ohio — the subject of Wallsten's piece. George Bush only won it by a whisker in 2004, and Obama is a much more formidable candidate than John Kerry was. Add to that GOP fatigue, fundraising woes, and the economic downturn, and then add to that lukewarm support from evangelicals for a candidate who's obviously not one of them, and it's hard to see how McCain doesn't run half a million votes or more behind Bush's numbers. Even if you cut that in half because there are some voters who just won't punch the button for the black guy, McCain is doomed. And if he doesn't win Ohio, there's no way he picks up enough votes elsewhere to make up for it.
I pretty much see it this way as well. What Drum did not mention is a few of the wild cards: the African-American and the young voter as well as overall turnout (the Democratic primary blew all attendance records away). I have to imagine there are 1 Million voters in there pulling the handle for Obama in key states (Ohio being one of them). And there are a few red states that trended Blue and were almost won for Kerry.

But we shall see.


  1. I dunno. I see the polls now, and I'm inclined with both yours and Drum's analysis. Still, all those years of being bludgeoned by the right has left me a little cynical. Part of me, admittedly, is still waiting for the Mighty Wurlitzer to truly warm.

    All the same, I've been blessedly wrong many times so far this election cycle. Let's hope it stays that way.

  2. I certainly share the bludgeoned feeling, given 8 years of GW. And the "Left Wing Media" have just began to call Obama a wife-swapping, atheist, baby-raping Muslim who hates America. But I have been struck by the trend lines of Democratic candidate support.

    But still, I am a jaded bastard and would not be surprised of "4 more years". Saddened, but not surprised.

    Thanks for the comment.